More Progressive idol worship, courtesy of the Iranian Revolution.

The Iranian "Green Revolution," as it is being called, certainly has some very complex and often confusing facets to it. But I don't think anyone would have ever expected it to confuse the political ambient here in the States.

Yesterday, Robert Kagan, a neo-conservative foreign policy expert, in his monthly op-ed column for the Washington Post, wrote about the difficulties opposition protests are creating for President Obama and his strategy on dealing with Iran.

Kagan's thoughts on the situation are simple, a return to normalcy within Iran's political structure is key for the Obama plan of directly engaging the Ahmadinejad regime. My own personal feelings aside, Kagan's analysis is not that unbelievable, even though I think this is going to go in quite a different direction than anyone could have guessed.

However what I found rather pathetic was the attempted rebuttal by the Left. I was immensely surprised by the pitiful criticism offered by Johnathan Chait of the New Republic. And of course the other cast of infant talking pointers who never fail to disappoint with their absurd and ridiculous squawking. It seems witless observations are all these folks are worth these days.


On the top of the list is Matthew Yglesias of Think Regress who seems to be very enamored of his "colleague," Matt Duss's appraisal.

Meanwhile, my colleague Matt Duss was on MSNBC yesterday offering a much more reasonable take on Obama’s restrained response:

DUSS: I think the lesson to be learned is the United States’ ability to intervene and change these outcomes is rather limited. As Americans, we like to believe that our ability to move, to promote democracy and to move events in the world at our will is a lot bigger than it actually is. … Right now President Obama’s treatment of the demonstrations going on in Iran is pretty near perfect. He has taken the United States to the extent possible out of this equation, he, the United States, and our role in the Middle East is not — he’s not going to give that to the hard liners as an excuse for an even greater crackdown.

I don't dispute the that Americans tend to overstate our ability to intervene and change outcomes. However, in their attempt to blindly worship the President they have overlooked one small and very significant fact, a usual trait amongst the "intellectual progressives." Here is a photo from Kagan's article.



Notice this little lady's proclamation is in anglais not Iranian, as are many other protesters. It really isn't that hard to figure out that Iranian reformist protesters are sending a message to the West, more specifically the United States, about what they feel is happening to them. If this isn't the case then what are they trying to prove to us, ACORN rigged their election too?

Now please don't mistake this for me trying to make a case for sending in troops or raise the stakes against the Iranian government, but, it does seem to indicate some attempt at outreach to people in America. Nevertheless, the Obama administration is concerned over Ahmadinejad and the crazed Mullah's using any pro-reformist language from his administration as a talking point to prove American interference in domestic Iranian affairs. So, he has remained somewhat quiet on the subject.

Oh darn, Obama didn't have to wait very long for Mahmoud to start spreading that propaganda, now did he?

Another "genius" who misses the point is Taylor Marsh, whose brain has been soaking too long in the boggy topography which shares her surname.

Whatever the Iranian people are doing right now, however heartening it is, it is not a revolution in the sense of a democratic republic. The distinction of what we’d prefer for them, well, that is irrelevant and not for us to decide.

No, it isn't for us to decide, it is not for us to intervene, it is not ours. Does that mean we turn a blind eye and not support the ideals of a people who want to move in a different direction? A people who are obviously reaching out to us for some unknown reason? Does it not demand investigation into why they are doing this or why Mousavi is obviously sanctioning his supporters to proceed with messages in English? Besides, Mahmoud has already jumped the shark with an opening salvo against Obama by invoking American interventionism. I guess these two dolts like to haphazardly dismiss or ignore certain facts to make themselves appear more informed than they are to their brainwashed readership.

Now there is also this little find. courtesy of Foreign Policy Magazine. Just say it is straight from the Persian horse's mouth. This is an excerpt from FP's interview with Mohsen Makhmalbaf, Mousavi's external spokesman.

Foreign Policy: You were involved in the 1979 Iranian Revolution as a young man, and your films have touched on it extensively. What parallels do you see between then and today's situation?

Mohsen Makhmalbaf: There are some similarities and some differences. In both situations, people were in the streets. In the [earlier] revolution, there were young people in the streets who were not as modern as the people are today. And they were in the streets following the lead of a leader, a mullah -- in those times Ayatollah Khomeini. Now, the young people in the streets are more modern: They use SMS; they use the Internet. And they are not being actually led by anyone, but they are connected to each other.

These young people who are in the streets are looking for peace and democracy. The previous revolution was a revolution of traditionalism against modernism; but now this is a revolution of modernism against traditionalism. The previous revolution had a frown; this one has a smile on its face. The previous revolution was red; this one is green. We can say that this is a 21st-century revolution, but the other was a 20th-century revolution. That revolution was led by the people who were educated by the epoch of the shah, and this generation was brought up by the mullahs inside the Islamic Revolution. We have many young people, and maturity is killing the fathers. In each generation, we kill our fathers. And our fathers [today] are the mullahs.

This is not about Mousavi, Ahmadinejad, or the Supreme Leader, it as about what the people in Iran want. This is about enough people, on their own accord and not bused in by the government, demonstrating against what they feel is a repressive and tyrannical regime. A regime which will not allow a country, who two thirds of its population in under 30, to mature on its own.

Please let me reiterate that I am not advocating military intervention or hostile sanctions against Iran. Just the Obama administration letting the people of Iran know we get it and are with them and their personal quest for against freedom to grow on their own. Not stick our heads in the sand like frightened little children who are fearful of ever making a decision.

Continue reading ...

Iran: The one time I hope Conservatives falter.

Nothing turns out to be so oppressive and unjust as a feeble government.

-Edmund Burke

As the situation in Iran fluxes, yet again, many theories abound over the web about ballot discrepancies and internal power struggles. Here is an aggregation of opinions and some numbers on Iran's election results provided by miscellaneous websites and media sources.

The Boston Globe provides a good breakdown, in short form, of the past few days events and about 40 pictures from a rally which took place in Tehran today.

The Enterprise Blog of the American Enterprise Institute offers up some interesting commentary and theories as to who is really behind this alleged coup and why.

Five Thirty Eight has a fantastic analysis of the Iranian provincial voting totals being reported from inside the country.

The UK Telegraph is reporting that rumors are surfacing that the totals being reported by Iran's Interior Ministry were tampered with and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad actually placed third and Mir-Hossein Mousavi won.

The Politico shares a differing opinion based on polling data from a Western firm which interviewed Iranian voters prior to the election.

What Americans need to keep in mind is that Mousavi may be the legitimate President of Iran, or maybe not, however he was still a candidate appointed to run by the "conservative" Mullahs. In our terms, he still has the potential to be a dictator, just maybe a little softer of a despot than Mahmoud. This should not make him any more palatable, though.

As the title of this post states, "Hopefully the conservatives that dominate Iran's political structure falter." They sure aren't the type of conservatives I have come to respect or understand.

Continue reading ...

Iranian Religious Civil War Within the Government

StratFor Global Intelligence, has obtained a copy of a translated letter from al Jazeera written to the Iranian people by Iranian presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi.

Here is the full translated transcript.

Fellow countrymen,

I am receiving news about objections to the declared results of the latest elections, from all over the country. I am certain that these reactions are not for my personal sake, but it’s due to concern about a new way of political life that is being forced on our country.

The actions that we have witnessed in these few days have been unprecedented in the Islamic Republic.

If the people are following these present developments with a sense of worry, it’s because of their deep worry for the great achievements of their revolution being in danger.

Those who with the assistance of many violations have declared unbelievable results for the presidential elections, are now trying to establish those results and start a new period of our country’s history.

I have repeatedly, during the course of these elections, have spoken of dangers of escaping from the law and have emphasized that this method might result in tyranny and dictatorship, and today our nation is standing at a point that finds this prospect tangible.

We, as those who are loyal to the Islamic Republic and its constitutional laws, consider the Holy Jurisdiction one of the fundamentals of this regime and follow the political movements within legal frameworks.

I hope the progress of the new events would show the mistake in this impression and, at the same time, we warn that in this country no one who likes the Islamic Republic would accept this method, and this is what demands the bloods of hundreds of thousands of our martyrs to be responsible against it.

Dear people, today, in a letter that I presented to The Guardian Council, I have asked for the annulment of the results of the latest elections and I know this to be the only resolution for gaining the public confidence and the support of the people for the government.

My repeated suggestion as your servant is that you continue your civil and legal opposition all around the country, in a calm manner and observing anti-conflict fundamentals.

We have asked the responsible people to issue a permit for a mass rally in all the cities in Iran so that the people will have an opportunity to show their opposition towards the results of these elections and the way it was conducted.

The authorities’ agreement could be the best resolution for restraining the present tensions.

Let’s not abandon the green color which is a symbol of spirituality, freedom and religious mentality and moderateness and the Allah O Akbar slogan that tells us of revolutionary roots.

This is the color and slogan that is still unifying our nation and will be the best measure to connect our hearts and needs.

Sadly, an extensive effort has is being used to cut off our means of communication with each other, and it is not noticed that that the blocking of these lines would change the nature of the organized and goal-driven reactions to, God-forbidding, change into blind actions.

I am certain that your creativity would result in new and effective ways of communication so that we could use our actions in a beneficial way for the country and the revolution.

As someone who likes the police, I recommend them avoid harsh reactions towards people’s self-motivated actions and not let the people’s trust to this worthy organ be damaged.

These people have come to the scene to demand both their, and your, rights and they are your brothers and sisters. The power of the police and military forces of our country has always lied in their unity with the people and it will be the same in the future.

Now I don't profess to know Iranian "code" words or any other "code" words that many on the other political side of the aisle claim that are used today. Nevertheless, if this isn't a call to a revolution I don't know what is, albeit and hopefully, peaceful.

The last couple of paragraphs seem to be a plea to the military and law enforcement to either join in this attempted coup or stay out of the way.

There are a few other curious items, including a very interesting idea from the Washington Note that I glossed over. I didn't purport any importance on it due to the lack of evidence supporting the author's observations. Here is what he posted, via an Iranian contact.

He conveyed to me things that were mostly obvious -- Iran is now a tinderbox. The right is tenaciously consolidating its control over the state and refuses to yield. There is a split among the mullahs and significant dismay with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. A gaping hole has been ripped open in Iranian society, exposing the contradictions of the regime and everyone now sees that the democracy that they believed that they had in Iranian form is a "charade."

But the scariest point he made to me that I had not heard anywhere else is that this "coup by the right wing" has created pressures that cannot be solved or patted down by the normal institutional arrangements Iran has constructed. The Guardian Council and other power nodes of government can't deal with the current crisis and can't deal with the fact that a civil war has now broken out among Iran's revolutionaries.

For a link to Mr. Clemons' original article please go to, Iran: A Tinderbox?

It looks as if his contact's claims might be based in reality and not just unnecessary hyperventilating. And looking deeper into the contact's claims that this is not just a revolution but the beginnings of a full blown civil war within the religious hierarchy of the Iranian government seem to be coming true.

The next item is from the Council on Foreign Relations in an interview they just did with Gary Sick, a senior research scholar at SIPA's Middle East Institute, and an adjunct professor of international affairs at SIPA.

Q: Only time will tell what the implications are within Iran. I suspect that many of the clerics who are not enamored of Ahmadinejad are very upset at this development, don't you?

A: We really haven't heard from the senior clergy thus far. There are reports that Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani [a former president] who is a powerful figure in his own right, and somebody who was supporting Moussavi, and who was on the attack against Ahmadinejad when the elections took place, has gone to Qum to talk to the senior clerics. If so, this would be an attempt to accumulate support from that quarter. There are many senior clerics that have never been that happy, first of all, with the whole idea of an Islamic Republic but also about Ahmadinejad in particular. He was snubbed by them after he became president. They don't like his sort of pop spiritualism. They don't like the idea that he sets an extra place for the Mahdi [under Shiite tradition, the Twelfth Imam, a messiah figure] at the table to return. And if Rafsanjani is doing what the reports say, it would be understandable as a way of mobilizing support in an area that really matters to the Supreme Leader [Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei and also to Ahmadinejad.

Professor Sick's observation is somewhat backed up by others. From the Foreign Policy Blog, Trita Parsi's observations.

Clearly, the anti-Ahmadinejad camp has been taken by surprise and is scrambling for a plan. Increasingly, given their failure to get Khamenei to intervene, their only option seems to be to directly challenge -- or threaten to challenge -- the supreme leader.

Here's where the powerful chairman of the Assembly of Experts, Mousavi supporter Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, comes in. Only this assembly has the formal authority to call for Khamenei's dismissal, and it is now widely assumed that Rafsanjani is quietly assessing whether he has the votes to do so or not.

It may be that the first steps toward challenging Khamenei have already been taken. After all, Mousavi went over the supreme leader's head with an open letter to the clergy in Qom. Rafsanjani clearly failed to win Khamenei's support in a reported meeting between the two men Friday, but the influential Ali Akbar Mohtashamipour, who heads the vote-monitoring committee for Mousavi and fellow candidate Mehdi Karroubi, has officially requested that the Guardian Council cancel the election and schedule a new vote with proper monitoring.

Now here in the States bloggers and pundits are wrapped up in the idea that a revolution of the people is brewing and they are genuinely concerned about the violence they are seeing being perpetrated against the Iranian protesters. However, by these accounts it seems a power struggle is taking place amongst the hierarchy of the Iranian religious governing body and the people on the deck are caught in the middle.

Although not completely related to this, Max Boot, over at Commentary Magazine, gives an interesting neo-con take on how an Ahmadinejad victory could be beneficial for America's future dealings with the Iranian government.

Related Articles: Guess I am not the lone blogger on this one. A.J. Strata of the Strata-Sphere seems to be kicking around the same idea.

The Strata Sphere-Iranian Ayatollahs Versus The Mad Mullahs

Continue reading ...

Iran: A Tinderbox?

When you blink, sometimes, you miss what is happening in the world around you.


I am left to wonder if this picture of an Iranian woman standing in defiance of government forces will have the historical relevance that we remember this one for.










A lot has happened in Iran since the re-election of President Ahmadinejad. Reformist candidate, Mir Hossein Mousavi, is calling for the election results to be annulled and demonstrations by his supporters have been widespread across Iran.

Violence has ensued with shots being fired by Iranian police at Mousavi supporters. From Al Arabyia.

Earlier in the day police fired on supporters of defeated moderate reformist Mousavi who had gathered in the city center, chanting his name and throwing stones at police

The police chief said all gatherings without permits would not be permitted and said the candidates would be held responsible for an violations.

Communications in and out of the country have been blocked by the government of Iran

From Breitbart.com

The BBC said Sunday that the satellites it uses to broadcast in Persian were being jammed from Iran, disrupting its reports on the hotly-disputed presidential election.

The corporation said television and radio services had been affected from 1245 GMT Friday onwards by "heavy electronic jamming" which had become "progressively worse".

Satellite technicians had traced the interference to Iran, it said.

Ironically, the government has not yet figured out how to stop the stream of reporting from within the country via Twitter. Some in the United States are even wondering why CNN dropped the ball on reporting on what is going on.

Yesterday Steve Clemons of the Washington Note, via an Iranian "contact," reported that Ahmadinejad is fearful of the Iranian people, Mousavi, and other reformists.

My contact predicted serious violence at the highest levels. He said that Ahmadinejad is now genuinely scared of Iranian society and of Mousavi and Rafsanjani. The level of tension between them has gone beyond civil limits -- and my contact said that Ahmadinejad will try to have them imprisoned and killed.

This can go the way of Tienanmen Square and be reduced to a slaughterhouse or there actually might be some change on the horizon for Iran. If the latter comes to pass the direction of the Middle East is anyone's guess. If it is this former I am sure the country will slowly start to resemble North Korea with a healthy dash of extremist Islamism thrown in there.

H/T to Tehran24 for the pic.

Continue reading ...