Iran: A Tinderbox?

When you blink, sometimes, you miss what is happening in the world around you.

I am left to wonder if this picture of an Iranian woman standing in defiance of government forces will have the historical relevance that we remember this one for.

A lot has happened in Iran since the re-election of President Ahmadinejad. Reformist candidate, Mir Hossein Mousavi, is calling for the election results to be annulled and demonstrations by his supporters have been widespread across Iran.

Violence has ensued with shots being fired by Iranian police at Mousavi supporters. From Al Arabyia.

Earlier in the day police fired on supporters of defeated moderate reformist Mousavi who had gathered in the city center, chanting his name and throwing stones at police

The police chief said all gatherings without permits would not be permitted and said the candidates would be held responsible for an violations.

Communications in and out of the country have been blocked by the government of Iran


The BBC said Sunday that the satellites it uses to broadcast in Persian were being jammed from Iran, disrupting its reports on the hotly-disputed presidential election.

The corporation said television and radio services had been affected from 1245 GMT Friday onwards by "heavy electronic jamming" which had become "progressively worse".

Satellite technicians had traced the interference to Iran, it said.
Ironically, the government has not yet figured out how to stop the stream of reporting from within the country via Twitter. Some in the United States are even wondering why CNN dropped the ball on reporting on what is going on.

Yesterday Steve Clemons of the Washington Note, via an Iranian "contact," reported that Ahmadinejad is fearful of the Iranian people, Mousavi, and other reformists.

My contact predicted serious violence at the highest levels. He said that Ahmadinejad is now genuinely scared of Iranian society and of Mousavi and Rafsanjani. The level of tension between them has gone beyond civil limits -- and my contact said that Ahmadinejad will try to have them imprisoned and killed.
This can go the way of Tienanmen Square and be reduced to a slaughterhouse or there actually might be some change on the horizon for Iran. If the latter comes to pass the direction of the Middle East is anyone's guess. If it is this former I am sure the country will slowly start to resemble North Korea with a healthy dash of extremist Islamism thrown in there.

H/T to Tehran24 for the pic.



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