Russian Farce and U.S. Inaction

C.T.

The urgency with which the United States needs to intervene in the Caucus region is becoming paramount. Russia's actions are definitely earning them a place on the terror list in the GWOT (Global War on Terror).

This does not admonish the Georgians from there impetuous jump at South Ossetia, nor their miscalculation for NATO and U.S. support. But, the core issue is not their grievous errors, no matter what they would have done or how they would have handled it Russia is and was hell bent on destroying the small democracy. The real problem is how Russia engaged the problem of a potential EU, US, and NATO presence in the area and how they are continuing to carry out this policy.

This is more of a war against the West and its perceived interference in the area, another "proxy war" if you want to call it that. Georgia is the victim since it was the player that has opened the door to Amero/Euro influence in the area. The Russians have felt boxed in and I am sure some of our local apologists will blame the big bad imperialists here in the States for attempting to spread organic democracy to a people who welcomed it with open arms. Here is a timeline of the conflict provided by the Georgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs blog, via the Jawa Report. Of course this is slanted towards the Georgians, but it does show, along with other sources, the regime change that Russia seems to be seeking.

Monday, August 11 - 20:20 Tbilisi, Georgia

At this hour, the invading army of the Russian Federation has entered Georgian territory outside the conflict zones of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The Georgian army is retreating to defend the capital. The Government is urgently seeking international intervention to prevent the fall of Georgia and the further loss of life. "We no longer know the limits of the invading Russian army—Russia seems intent on overthrowing the democratically elected government of Georgia and occupying the country," said Alexander Lomaia, the Secretary of the National Security Council. "As a consequence, the National Security Council has just decided to bring the Georgian army to Tbilisi in order to defend the capital and prevent the fall of Georgia." [1]

Although there was no obvious Russian buildup on the border to think that they were not intent on getting ready to invade if given the chance is naive. Even US defense officials were surprised by the magnitude and speed of the Russian offensive.

"We were tracking it earlier in that week and we knew that things were escalating," said a military official, who asked not to be identified. "I can tell you it moved quicker than we anticipated that first day." [2]

The Russians handled this very cleverly as can be seen by this. Timeline is mid-July.

At around the same time, the Russian military deployed 8,000 troops to the North Caucases for counter-terrorism exercises that Moscow said were unrelated to the tensions with its southern neighbor. [2]

But of course all of this was just the tip of the spear of a peace keeping mission, not full on aggression against Georgia with the intent of destroying the small democracy. Then why this?

The US defense official said about 8,000 to 10,000 Russian troops have moved into South Ossetia. They also have flown SU-25, SU-24, SU-27 and TU-22 fighters and bombers during the campaign. [2]

We are talking about Russian strategic bombers and fighters, 500 tanks and artie pieces, and a division or two of ground troops. I don't every remember a "peace keeping force" needing that kind of fire power.

Tbilisi had realized they had made a strategic error and were not going to win this one, so they did what was asked of them they mediated a cease fire.

Following the weekend hostilities, the Government made a new push for peace in both South Ossetia and Abkhazia regions.“We need direct talks with the separatists to help put an end to this escalation,” said Reintegration Minister Temur Yakobashvili. [1]

and

Even as Saakashvili signed a cease-fire pledge Monday with European mediators, Russia flexed its military muscle and appeared determined to subdue the small U.S. ally, which has been pressing for NATO membership. [3]

Here is the Russian response to the cease-fire initiative.

Russia's massive and multi-pronged offensive has drawn wide criticism from the West, but Russia has rejected calls for a cease-fire and said it was acted to protect its citizens. Most residents of the separatist regions have Russian passports. [3]

The more you explore this the more you realize that Georgia provoked this by allowing themselves to be baited by the Russians, who were preparing for this all along. But the Russian reasons for carrying on this invasion is a complete farce and it does not take a diplomat or a military expert to realize this. No matter what got us here it was inevitable and there must be a massive show of military force by the US. We are partially responsible for this situation by our unapologetic support of Georgia and helped speed up this war. Not that our support of Georgia was wrong. But, if we do not react, this will show the other democracies in the area that ties with the US will not be tolerated and that we have no real commitment to them, just lip service. Also, it will empower the Russians to make more strategic and tactical moves against its neighboors and the West.

It is imperative that we send a military presence to the area under the guise of humanitarian relief. We do not need to engage the Russians, just let them know we are there for Georgia and their incursion and tyranny will not be tolerated. The "Evil Empire" is raising its ugly head once again and it might be time for us to cut it off once and for all.

C.T.

[1] Ministry of Foreign Affairs Georgia
[2] US military surprised by speed, timing of Russia military action
[3] Russia opens new front, drives deeper into Georgia

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Georgia Just Woke Up A Sleeping Bear

C.T.

War, it seems, has erupted in the small country of Georgia against its much larger and very angry neighbor, Russia. This small former Russian territory could be in a fight for its very life. Georgia, if you don't remember was the first territory to break away from the former Soviet Union on April 19th, 1991. This conflict is nothing new and the same players were involved as far back as 1995.

In 1995, Shevardnadze was officially elected as a president of Georgia. At the same time, two regions of Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, quickly became embroiled in disputes with local separatists that led to widespread inter-ethnic violence and wars. Supported by Russia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia achieved de facto independence from Georgia. More than 250,000 Georgians were ethnically cleansed from Abkhazia by Abkhaz separatists and North Caucasians volunteers (including Chechens) in 1992-1993. [1]

Mikheil Saakashvili, the President of Georgia, is a staunch ally of the West and especially the United States. He was pressing for his tiny country to be entered into NATO, but this was blocked by Berlin, more than likely due to fears of Russian reprisals and anger. Georgia also has about 2,000 troops in Iraq, the third largest contingent of forces behind Britain and the U.S.

Georgia's President Mikhail Saakashvili has a different agenda - he won election in 2004 on promise to recover the breakaway territories (i.e. South Ossetia and Abkhazia), and to join NATO. [2]

Mr. Saakashvili made good on his campaign promise and on Friday launched a full scale military operation, taking control of the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali. Although, successful, the celebration did not last very long.

GORI, Georgia — The conflict between Russia and the former Soviet republic of Georgia moved toward full-scale war on Saturday, as Russia sent warships to land ground troops in the disputed territory of Abkhazia and broadened its bombing campaign across Georgia.[3]

The Georgian government has been antagonized by the Russians for years now and finally took the bait hook line and sinker. In response to this "open rebellion" Russia has taken a few steps to position themselves for military action against Georgia. The Russians have had a long standing economic embargo against the Georgians for years, a military presence in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, provided financial assistance to the secessionist states, and given Russian passports to their citizens. Strategically the Russians have felt compelled to react to the threat of western encirclement. If Georgia would have been allowed to strengthen its ties with the West by becoming a member of NATO it would have been Serbia all over again. The Russians were clever, in their own fashion, for setting up legitimate reasons for this invasion.

Russia's initial response was to convene an emergency session of the U.N. Security Council, hoping to pass a resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire between Georgia and South Ossetia. But the Russian draft resolution was contentious. The United State and others objected to language that appeared to exempt Russia from condemnation over the use of force. [2]

and this, remember the passports?

The Security Council failed to agree on a resolution, and the following day, as Russian media began to report casualties among Russian troops and citizens in South Ossetia, a stern-faced President Dmitri Medvedev appeared on prime-time television to make a chilling call to arms: "I am obligated to defend the life and honor of Russian citizens, wherever they may be," he said. "We will not let those responsible for the death of our people go unpunished." [2]

Let's not forget that the poor ole' Russian bear is simply doing what it has always done, protect innocent people from atrocities.

In a news conference, Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia said Georgian attacks on what he called “Russian citizens” in South Ossetia “amounted to ethnic cleansing.” [3]

Tibisli, the capital of Georgia, made a grievous error by over estimating the support they would receive from the U.S. and other Western allies. I think it has made them feel empowered to move against Russian aggression and take matters into their own hands. Unfortunately or fortunately, depending on your perspective, the West is not going to risk open warfare with Russia. Although, a portion of what they used to be the Russians still command fierce military, economic, and political clout in the region. The Euro's are constantly trying to pander to Russia due to fears from the past and the United States does not want to openly upset the balance of "Russian Democracy" with a military conflict. Plus, there is Iraq and Afghanistan to think about.

From the Russian point of view there are many other reasons to press an attack on Georgia.

Georgia is a transit country for oil and natural gas exports from the former Soviet Union that threatens Russia’s near monopoly. [3]

and

"They need control of energy routes,” Mr. Saakashvili said. “They need sea ports. They need transportation infrastructure. And primarily, they want to get rid of us. ” [3]

The Russians may be belligerent, swaggering, arrogant bullies who move as stealthily as an 18 wheeler, but, no one can accuse them of being stupid. They set the trap, guided Georgia to it, and then sprang it when Georgia blinked. With the potential problems facing the United States in Iraq, Afghanistan, and possibly Iran, I would think that military intervention in Georgia is almost a nil possibility. Since diplomatic resolutions with Russia are about as effective as trying to make a tree walk. The only things the West can possibly do is provide military aid to Georgia, strategic and tactical information on Russian movements, and "MAYBE" some SPEC WAR intervention. Even these possibilities are a stretch, at best.

Hopefully this conflict will be resolved without any more bloodshed, but, I think it is safe to say that the Russian bear is back and growling. The eagle needs to realize this and start preparing a little better for the upcoming years, an old enemy has just resurfaced and we have a lot of new ones to keep him company.

[1] Georgia (country)
[2] Has Georgia Overreached in Ossetia?
[3] Georgia and Russia Nearing All-Out War

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