Russia pushes and US is starting to push back.

C.T.

Poland has now ratified the missile defense shield with the US, NATO is having a nice little get together to discuss what to do about the Rooskies, and Condi is getting ready to go on the warpath. Seems, the pieces on the chessboard are being positioned by NATO (the United States) to push their agenda through despite Russian overt aggression in the Caucus region. If this plays out like I think it will Russia has made a very grievous strategic error, not only has it not accomplished their goal of isolating the Caucasus, but it has caused the NATO agenda to speed up and gain more international support than ever before. The idea of a Balkan or Caucus state becoming a member of NATO would probably have been treated by most people as a novelty or a quaint sign of a changing world. Now that is not the case, the limited or full membership of these nations into NATO has moved to the forefront of the geo-political scene and is on the mind of most people around the world. The attitude displayed by Condi Rice is somewhat surprising and antagonistic. Quite a breath of fresh air, actually.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Monday that Russia is playing a "very dangerous game" with the U.S. and its allies and warned that NATO would not allow Moscow to win in Georgia, destabilize Europe or draw a new IronCurtain through it. [1]

I really liked this one.

This "is a very dangerous game and perhaps one the Russians want to reconsider," Rice said of the flights that began again with frequency about six months ago. "This is not something that is just cost-free. Nobody needs Russian strategic aviation along America's coast." [1]

Remember, all this tough talk is coming from the American Secretary of State, not from the other members of NATO. Despite what my theory on the outcome might be, there is always the Western Europe factor of sucking up to a tyrannical government to consider. The chips can still fall for Russia if NATO chooses to take a lame or weak stance.

At Tuesday's meeting, the NATO ministers will consider a range of upcoming activities planned with Russia—from military exercises to ministerial meetings—and decide case-by-case at the meeting Tuesday whether to go ahead or cancel each. [1]

Puppet..er.. President Medvedev, of the Soviet...er..Russian Federation had this to say to "foreign powers."

President Medvedev of Russia yesterday promised a “shattering blow” against any foreign power that moved against Russian citizens. [2]

Now, there is the Russia I remember; a total lack of cognizance, ignominious, and childishly imprudent.

The threat will compound the fears of former Soviet states, which are concerned that they could be next after Russia’s attack on Georgia. [2]

This analysis is only half right, the fear of looming Russian attack will be there. But, where the small Caucus and Baltic nations run for protection and support is a whole other point of contention. Even money would bet on NATO and the States, especially if NATO allows some sort of interim membership for the fledgling democracies and provides military assistance to these regions. Granted, the US and NATO failed Georgia miserably, but so far, they are stepping up to the plate to correct the situation and drawing a line in the sand with the Russians. The meeting on Tuesday will more than likely be a window into how NATO will be dealing with the Russians in the future.

C.T.

[1]NATO won't let Russia succeed in Georgia: Rice
[2]Cross us and we will crush you, warns Medvedev

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Georgia Just Woke Up A Sleeping Bear

C.T.

War, it seems, has erupted in the small country of Georgia against its much larger and very angry neighbor, Russia. This small former Russian territory could be in a fight for its very life. Georgia, if you don't remember was the first territory to break away from the former Soviet Union on April 19th, 1991. This conflict is nothing new and the same players were involved as far back as 1995.

In 1995, Shevardnadze was officially elected as a president of Georgia. At the same time, two regions of Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, quickly became embroiled in disputes with local separatists that led to widespread inter-ethnic violence and wars. Supported by Russia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia achieved de facto independence from Georgia. More than 250,000 Georgians were ethnically cleansed from Abkhazia by Abkhaz separatists and North Caucasians volunteers (including Chechens) in 1992-1993. [1]

Mikheil Saakashvili, the President of Georgia, is a staunch ally of the West and especially the United States. He was pressing for his tiny country to be entered into NATO, but this was blocked by Berlin, more than likely due to fears of Russian reprisals and anger. Georgia also has about 2,000 troops in Iraq, the third largest contingent of forces behind Britain and the U.S.

Georgia's President Mikhail Saakashvili has a different agenda - he won election in 2004 on promise to recover the breakaway territories (i.e. South Ossetia and Abkhazia), and to join NATO. [2]

Mr. Saakashvili made good on his campaign promise and on Friday launched a full scale military operation, taking control of the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali. Although, successful, the celebration did not last very long.

GORI, Georgia — The conflict between Russia and the former Soviet republic of Georgia moved toward full-scale war on Saturday, as Russia sent warships to land ground troops in the disputed territory of Abkhazia and broadened its bombing campaign across Georgia.[3]

The Georgian government has been antagonized by the Russians for years now and finally took the bait hook line and sinker. In response to this "open rebellion" Russia has taken a few steps to position themselves for military action against Georgia. The Russians have had a long standing economic embargo against the Georgians for years, a military presence in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, provided financial assistance to the secessionist states, and given Russian passports to their citizens. Strategically the Russians have felt compelled to react to the threat of western encirclement. If Georgia would have been allowed to strengthen its ties with the West by becoming a member of NATO it would have been Serbia all over again. The Russians were clever, in their own fashion, for setting up legitimate reasons for this invasion.

Russia's initial response was to convene an emergency session of the U.N. Security Council, hoping to pass a resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire between Georgia and South Ossetia. But the Russian draft resolution was contentious. The United State and others objected to language that appeared to exempt Russia from condemnation over the use of force. [2]

and this, remember the passports?

The Security Council failed to agree on a resolution, and the following day, as Russian media began to report casualties among Russian troops and citizens in South Ossetia, a stern-faced President Dmitri Medvedev appeared on prime-time television to make a chilling call to arms: "I am obligated to defend the life and honor of Russian citizens, wherever they may be," he said. "We will not let those responsible for the death of our people go unpunished." [2]

Let's not forget that the poor ole' Russian bear is simply doing what it has always done, protect innocent people from atrocities.

In a news conference, Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia said Georgian attacks on what he called “Russian citizens” in South Ossetia “amounted to ethnic cleansing.” [3]

Tibisli, the capital of Georgia, made a grievous error by over estimating the support they would receive from the U.S. and other Western allies. I think it has made them feel empowered to move against Russian aggression and take matters into their own hands. Unfortunately or fortunately, depending on your perspective, the West is not going to risk open warfare with Russia. Although, a portion of what they used to be the Russians still command fierce military, economic, and political clout in the region. The Euro's are constantly trying to pander to Russia due to fears from the past and the United States does not want to openly upset the balance of "Russian Democracy" with a military conflict. Plus, there is Iraq and Afghanistan to think about.

From the Russian point of view there are many other reasons to press an attack on Georgia.

Georgia is a transit country for oil and natural gas exports from the former Soviet Union that threatens Russia’s near monopoly. [3]

and

"They need control of energy routes,” Mr. Saakashvili said. “They need sea ports. They need transportation infrastructure. And primarily, they want to get rid of us. ” [3]

The Russians may be belligerent, swaggering, arrogant bullies who move as stealthily as an 18 wheeler, but, no one can accuse them of being stupid. They set the trap, guided Georgia to it, and then sprang it when Georgia blinked. With the potential problems facing the United States in Iraq, Afghanistan, and possibly Iran, I would think that military intervention in Georgia is almost a nil possibility. Since diplomatic resolutions with Russia are about as effective as trying to make a tree walk. The only things the West can possibly do is provide military aid to Georgia, strategic and tactical information on Russian movements, and "MAYBE" some SPEC WAR intervention. Even these possibilities are a stretch, at best.

Hopefully this conflict will be resolved without any more bloodshed, but, I think it is safe to say that the Russian bear is back and growling. The eagle needs to realize this and start preparing a little better for the upcoming years, an old enemy has just resurfaced and we have a lot of new ones to keep him company.

[1] Georgia (country)
[2] Has Georgia Overreached in Ossetia?
[3] Georgia and Russia Nearing All-Out War

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