Many of the social sciences provide useful insights to
problems, trends, provide metrics and measurable data for humanity as a group
(social) or on an individual basis. Over the decades, they have gotten more
sophisticated and advanced in study methodology, data collection techniques,
and interpretive approaches. However, and despite all of these advancements, they
are still circumspect to some, there have been charges of political
bias,
the narrowness in the backgrounds of the subjects in some social science research—think
WEIRD—and
problems
with subjectivity and thus research bias being introduced into investigation
methodology. All valid points, to a
point. But the worst violators of using
social science data to prove a point is not necessarily the researchers, but
the people who popularize the research; media, politicians, ideologues, etc.
Case in point, the Washington Post’s own Wonk Blog. WB, in
an attempt to discredit a gun rights advocate based study that indicates “More
guns, less crime,” is now popularizing a
recent
study which purportedly “debunks” this study.
The
notion stems from a paper
published in 1997 by economists John Lott and David Mustard,
who looked at county-level crime data from 1977 to 1992 and concluded that
"allowing
citizens to carry concealed weapons deters violent crimes and it appears to
produce no increase in accidental deaths." Of course, the study of gun
crime has advanced significantly since then (no thanks to Congress). Some researchers have gone so far as
to call Lott and Mustard's original study "completely discredited."
One
of the major critiques of the study came from the National
Research Council, which in 2004 extended the data through the year
2000 and ultimately concluded that "with the current evidence
it is not possible to determine that there is a causal link between the passage
of right-to-carry laws and crime rates." Or in other words, "More
guns, less crime? ¯\_ (ツ) _/¯
Now,
Stanford law professor John Donohue and his colleagues have added another full
decade to the analysis, extending it through 2010, and have concluded that the opposite of
Lott and Mustard's original conclusion is true: more guns equal more crime.
"The
totality of the evidence based on educated judgments about the best statistical
models suggests that right-to-carry laws are associated with substantially
higher rates" of aggravated assault, robbery, rape and murder, Donohue
said in an interview with the Stanford Report. The
evidence suggests that right-to-carry laws are associated with an 8
percent increase in the incidence of aggravated assault, according to Donohue.
He says this number is likely a floor, and that some statistical methods show
an increase of 33 percent in aggravated assaults involving a firearm after the
passage of right-to-carry laws…
All I can say in response to “more guns equal more crime is “not
really.”
First let’s look at the number of guns in the United States,
“The National Institute of Justice (NIJ) reported in a national survey that in
1994, 44 million people, approximately 35% of households, owned 192 million
firearms, 65 million of which were handguns.” In 2009 the CRS estimates that
the “estimated total number of firearms available to civilians in the United
States had increased to approximately 310 million: 114 million handguns, 110
million rifles, and 86 million shotguns.”
Now that we have established that there was a rise in
weapons availability the next step is to at least try and get some sort of
estimate to the number of weapons owned in the United States within recent
years. According to
Pew
Research, Social and Demographic Trends, “The 2007 Small Arms Survey,
conducted by the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in
Geneva (
Completing
the Count, 2007), estimated that 270 million firearms were owned by private
citizens in the U.S. that year,
13 or about 90 firearms
per 100 people.”
So…from these two studies we can conclude that from 1994 until
2007 there was an increase in gun ownership of approximately 78 million
weapons. Moreover, since 2007 we can
further reasonably deduce that gun ownership has steadily risen keeping pace
with typical trends.
Now we will take a look at the amount of murder rates,
firearm related murder rates, and non-firearm murder rates found in the CRS
study.
From the early 90’s until 2011 there is a significant drop
in total amount of overall murder rates. Specifically though in 1993 the firearm
related murder rate was 6.6 per 100 thousand and in 2011 it measured 3.4 per
100 thousand. Subsequently as we see an increase in not only the availability of
firearms but the ownership as well, there is a distinct and noticeable drop in
the number of firearm related murder rates. But wait…it wasn’t just murder rates
that were included in the Wonk Blog article, it was other additional crimes. Let’s
take a look at the FBI’s Uniformed Crime Reporting Statistics and
make
a comparison.
As you can see since 1993 there have been dramatic reductions
in the categories which are considered to fall under the description of violent
crime.The very same categories indicated in the Wonk Blog article which are purportedly increasing. But there
is a stark difference which must be mentioned and that is the study cited in
the WB article has a very narrow field they are analyzing and that is the
effect of right to carry--aka conceal carry--laws. Conversely though the tone of the post doesn’t
lend itself to that line of rhetoric, you are left with the impression by Wonk
Blog that an increase in the number of guns directly correlates with an
increase in violent crime. Take their comment in this paragraph which is an erroneousness
observation. (Emphasis Mine)
Now, Stanford law professor John Donohue and his colleagues
have added another full decade to the analysis, extending it through 2010, and have concluded that the opposite of
Lott and Mustard's original conclusion is true: more guns equal more crime.
First off if correlation denotes causation which it doesn't always
do, we have shown based on other sources that there is an ample pool of
evidence contrary to the point Wonk Blog is attempting to make. Secondly if the
Stanford study concentrates on Right to Carry laws, this is a completely different
argument than stating that an increase in guns increases crime. You see “right
to carry” does not increase the availability of weapons in purchasing or
manufacturing terms, it is about your access to your personal weapons that are
already in your possession. Even this is something I would remain skeptical of.
The larger point here is not really my advocating for gun rights but how a journalistic
grifter, or an equally gifted gun rights swindler for that matter, can use a
case study to gin up the faithful and maybe sway fence sitters to their side. Being a charlatan can roll both ways when it comes to your
personal agendas.
Addendum: Just
for the record and integrity of this post I am a second amendment guy who
supports gun rights advocacy. However, that support is limited by my candor.