Fortune Telling and The Future Fight With Iran

C.T.

One of the things I have tried to stay away from is speculation and conjecture. But at the end of the day, this has been a fairly unsuccessful attempt. It's very hard not to have an opinion about the future when consuming so much news and connecting the dots. The re-occurring theme of late is the potential American and Iranian conflict.

The immanency and fear of this attack is even being echoed by Tehran itself. The Iranian government is now sending out staunch warnings to the West and Israel.

"Even a slightest hint [on a possibility of the attack] will lead to an increase [in global oil prices] by $10-15, but in case of a real aggression against Iran, the oil prices will rise to unpredictable highs," Gholamhossein Nozari told reporters in Tehran. [1]

But, the Iranians still seem to hold out hope that the United States will not risk military involvement with Iran because we are “bogged down” in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Iranian Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki, on a July 2 visit to UnitedNations headquarters in New York, told journalists he thinks neither the United States nor Israel will risk what he called the "craziness" of attacking Iran. Mottaki said officials in Tehran think such an attack is unlikely because U.S. forces are bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan. Mottaki also said "constructive staements and approaches," as well as an earlier proposal by Iran, had "paved the way" for creating a more positive diplomatic atmosphere. But he also issued a warning that "if the nature of the offense changes and takes on a military shape and form, then the military will use its own language and speak in its own language." "Our preference is that the environment remains political and diplomatic so that we can find diplomatic solutions as a priority," Mottaki said. [2]

Although, a lot of tough talk, I will give the Iranians this, they might just be seeing the light. At the very least they are trying flex at Washington while leaving the door for diplomacy open. Despite their bellowing, Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, had a little bit of a different message about potential U.S. military action and the road of diplomacy.

At the Pentagon, the chairman of the U.S. Joint chiefs of Staff, U.S. Admiral Mike Mullen, said Tehran has reached the wrong conclusion if it thinks
the United States is unable to back diplomacy with military force. Still, Mullen admitted that war with Iran would be a logistical challenge for U.S. forces. Opening up a third front right now would be extremely stressful on us," Mullen said. "That doesn't mean we don't have capacity or reserve. But that would really be very challenging. And also the consequences of that sometimes are very difficult to predict." [2]

I prefer Mullen’s attitude to any I have seen or heard so far. He is being very pragmatic about the situation. He does understand the need for a diplomatic solution, but, the military option is still there, looming. As this situation takes shape and if the Iranians still remain stubborn, I fear we will be looking at a possible military confrontation with them.

The Iranians have been playing this proxy war with the U.S. and Israel for years. They have also been quite successful with it. But, with their renewed boldness in the past few years and their growing need to be a player in the international community they are placing themselves into a precarious situation. This war will not be fought in the shadows; it will be up front and in their faces. Everything the Mullahs in Iran know will be destroyed or changed in a way they will not want or appreciate. This is not a statement of American arrogance or cowboyism; it is just a fact of reality.

No one with any sense wants a war, but sometimes you have to step up and do what is right. The implications of an American/Iranian conflict will be far reaching and it is very difficult to predict the political and social outcomes, but if it does happen there will be great changes in the Middle East and the rest of the world. The question is what will those changes be?

C.T.

[1] Iran warns of sharp increase in oil prices if attacked
[2] U.S., Iran Downplay Talk Of War Over Nuclear Dispute