Millennials evidently want a GOP run Congress.

Well...I wish I could say that I had planned this but sometimes "it's better to be lucky, than good." Last night I offered up Sean Trende's perspective on the so-called 'Emerging Democratic Majority' (EDM) in which  Latino/Hispanic populations and Millennials, both key players in the "foreordained" Liberal rise to permanency and primacy. Two polls which, just released today, lend themselves towards Trende's observation that the EDM theory is a figmental  supposition that is impossible to predict.

The first poll was provided by Harvard and shows that the 18-29'ers, aka Millennials, are apparently breaking for the GOP in the mid-terms.

A new and massive poll of 2,029 18- to 29-year-olds from Harvard’s Institute of Politics just released found that of those who say they will “definitely be voting,” 51 percent want the GOP in charge, 47 percent favoring Democratic control. The unexpected anti-Democratic swing prompted a Canadian Broadcasting Corporation reporter quizzing poll experts on a media conference call to IOP blurted out, "How did the Democrats and Obama screw this up?"

The second poll was produced by Pew Research Hispanic Trends Project.

From: Pew Research Hispanic Trends Project

As you can see the Democratic share of the Latino/Hispanic vote still weighs heavy in favor of Democrats. However, the GOP share of the vote has increased to a level which matched support when President Bush, who was popular with the Hispanic community, was in office. Resulting in a 7% increase in three years without much to little effort by the Republicans in voter outreach to the Hispanic and Latino communities respectively.


Putting all of this into perspective, this does not equate some monumental shift in paradigm by these two demographics. This phenomena appears to be more related to both groups' disgust with the continual incompetency of both the Administration and Democrats on the Hill. Additionally, it has absolutely nothing to do with the GOP being some sort of idea factory that has won them over ideologically. The latter would be asking entirely too much from Republican leadership.

Addendum: There is an interesting point in the above mentioned Pew Research poll which I found on Real Clear Politics.

Only 36 percent of Latino voters would not support a candidate who disagrees with them about immigration policy (even if they agree on most other issues). Fifty-four percent would consider voting for the candidate they disagree with, and 6 percent said it “depends.”

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The 'Emerging Democratic Majority'

Around here...we talk politics offline, as hard as that might be to believe. Nevertheless, one of the recurring themes that we drift to is the inevitably or the uncertainty of the so-called "Emerging Democratic Majority Theory."

The theory in essence states that due to demographic shifts taking place in the United States the face of the electorate in coming decades will dramatically tilt, considerably favoring the Progressive/Democratic agendas. Thus relegating the GOP to the same fate as the Whigs...obscurity then oblivion. 

Why wouldn't you believe this on face value when you see the influx of immigrant populations  growing through illegal and legal immigration? Also there is the assimilation factor; first generation immigrants are not necessarily adapting to proto-American culture and are demonstrating a considerable proclivity towards the Democratic camp. Also, there is a vast plethora of evidence to support this theory beyond what is presented here. 

However, Sean Trende-a political analyst for Real Clear Politics--offers a refutation to this particular rationale. 

Most skeptics, on the other hand, start from a belief that realignment theory does not accurately describe how American elections work.  Following David Mayhew’s seminal “Electoral Realignments,” many political scientists and EDM skeptics came to conclude during the 2000s that realignment theory is fatally flawed.  I’ve explored this numerous times on this site, as well as in my book, “The Lost Majority” (now available for a bright, shiny penny at Amazon marketplace). Among the reasons for being skeptical of the concept of realignments:

• Many elections that are not listed as critical elections nevertheless show many of the features of critical elections (1874, 1912, 1952), which disrupts periodicity and argues against the idea of extended party rule.

• There is a distinct tendency to regress toward a neutral mean in elections.

• One-party control of government is actually rare, and has only occurred after 13 of the past 34 elections.

• The “runs” of wins and losses by one party or the other that we see in presidential elections are consistent with random chance.

• The periodicity of electoral cycles, to the extent it ever existed, breaks down in 1932, as Republicans only briefly took unified control of government during their supposed majority period.

• Realignment theory can be deconstructed as revealing a preference for an economic narrative; if our preference were for, say, a foreign policy narrative, we could write a coherent realignment narrative focusing on 1900, 1920, 1952, 1980 and 2008.  A civil rights narrative might see critical elections in 1860, 1892, 1936, 1964 and 2008.

• Elections are well-predicted by a few fundamental factors, such as the economy, wars, scandal, and incumbency.

That last factor is, I think, the kicker. Even the most ardent realignment theorist will concede that the occasional war, recession and so forth will allow the out-party to win. To me, that is exactly backwards: Wars, recessions, expansions and so forth are the rule in elections, and our elections follow those much more closely than they do demographic trends. So a skeptic’s baseline belief is substantially lower -- maybe 10 percent. 

This is not to deny the EMD theory just to say that planning out 'emerging majorities' may be a false premise based on a vast amount of circumstantial evidence. These coalitions are not immutable nor are they abatable. Realistically we have no idea what the world of tomorrow will be or even look like. Of course you can say you are running a fool's gambit by denying its inevitability in the face of the tsunami of data.

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