This year’s Senate election is close. Republicans have the clearer path to a majority, but it’s a treacherous one. Republicans are favored in Iowa and Colorado, for example, but not by much. If Democrats eked out victories in those states and picked up the seat in Kansas (by persuading independent Greg Orman to caucus with them), they could control 50 Senate seats and keep their majority. Democrats could also still pick up seats from the GOP in Georgia and Kentucky. And Republican gains in Arkansas and Louisiana are probable but far from certain.
Browse » Home » Republicans » 2012 Polls and Election: A cautionary tale for Democrats, and Republicans, for the 2014 Mid-Terms.
2012 Polls and Election: A cautionary tale for Democrats, and Republicans, for the 2014 Mid-Terms.
Nate Silver, sabermetrician, political prognosticator, and proprietor of fivethirtyeight.com, reminds us of the Republican now infamous "the polls are skewed" in the 2012 presidential contest. That Ostrich Effect which infected the GOP has now spread among the Democratic party-faithful.
However...this in no way, shape, or form means that the GOP should suffer from a bout of overconfidence about victory in the mid-terms as Silver highlights.
There are still three weeks left until voting day. Subsequently, there is still room for the GOP to flub this election by becoming brash and lazy. Thus throwing away their chances for a Senate majority.